The Collected Works of Author and Blogger Larry Roberts

Archive for 2011

Banks dramatically increased their scheduled foreclosure auctions in November 63% over October. They appear serious about clearing out shadow inventory and getting what capital they can out of the loans secured by houses occupied by delinquent mortgage squatters. Scheduled foreclosure auctions soar in California Banks set the clock for forced sales of more than 26,000 homes in the state in November, a 63% increase from October. Overall foreclosure notices nationwide fell last month. By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times -- December 15, 2011 Banks in November scheduled more than 26,000 homes to be sold at California foreclosure auctions, a 63% increase from October and a sign that a surge in discounted, bank-owned properties is on track to hit the market…[READ MORE]

In Los Angeles and Orange Counties, the conforming loan limit dropped from $729,750 to $625,000 on October 1, 2011. Many market bulls claimed this would have no effect on sales. In November sales of houses with loans between $625,000 and $729,750 declined 84% as compared to last November. So much for having no impact. In other news, the falling prices are beginning to motivate some buyers as evidenced by the small increase in sales volume. Falling prices and increasing sales are prerequisite to forming a durable market bottom. SoCal home sales rise on declining prices by KERRY CURRY -- Wednesday, December 14th, 2011, 12:04 pm The number of homes sold in Southern California rose modestly last month from both October…[READ MORE]

The National Association of realtors has a credibility problem. Everyone already distrusts them because the sales techniques they advocate rely on falsehood and manipulation to cajole buyers into closing deals. But their problems go deeper than that. The association provides market data which purportedly is objective, but it certainly appears as if they manipulate this data to make the market look stronger than it is. Is this an "honest" mistake? Back in February I noted that the National Association of realtors caught lying about home sales. I contended that "The NAr wanted to dupe buyers into thinking the market was stable to induce transactions that never would have gone through if buyers had known the truth." Perhaps they were nefarious…[READ MORE]

Mortgage delinquency rates will likely decline in 2012 as lenders foreclose and remove the loan from the delinquency pool. Unfortunately for lenders, the delinquency rate is expected to rise for the first quarter of 2012 as declining prices and a weak economy prompts more borrowers to strategically default. 2012 mortgage delinquencies seen dropping sharply By Eileen Aj Connelly NEW YORK – If the U.S. economy does not suffer more setbacks, the rate of mortgage holders behind on their payments should decline significantly by the end of next year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. Mortgage delinquency rates — the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days behind on their payments — will likely tick up to about 6% through the…[READ MORE]

In a recent report Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research said, “More problematic is the inventory of unsold homes. Not only are there still too many unsold housing units in the market, there are a large number of homes in the foreclosure process that will keep the supply of resale housing units at an elevated level.” They are projecting the median sales prices will remain flat. In this same report last year, Chapman blew it and projected an increase in the median sales price. The supply problems that caused their forecast to fail in 2011 became the reasoning for a more bearish forecast in 2012. Better late than never. In my post on January 1, 2011, Predictions for 2011,…[READ MORE]

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