The Collected Works of Author and Blogger Larry Roberts

Archive for November, 2012

A big part of the bullish sentiment toward real estate is the believe that former owners who lost their houses in foreclosure will return in droves to mop up the supply of shadow inventory and push prices higher. But what if they don't come back? What if they were so burned by the experience that they choose a lifetime of renting instead? A recent study from the federal reserve suggests this may be the case. Almost 75% of those who lost their homes to foreclosure may never return, and if they don't the so-called recovery may be much weaker than the bulls expect. Credit Access Following a Mortgage Default By William Hedberg and John Krainer -- October 29, 2012 Borrowers…[READ MORE]

Based on their recent behavior, it's safe to conclude the government and the banking cartel believe they can resolve all their ills through loan modifications and short sales. Despite a huge shadow inventory of delinquent loans, lenders have slowed their foreclosure processing, and they show no signs of picking up the pace despite the recent increase in delinquencies likely caused by people opting for a free ride. I believe lenders will ultimately be forced to push out committed squatters in a foreclosure, but I also believe that lenders will also try and fail at every other alternative first. The push for loan modifications Lenders have good reasons to pursue loan modifications. If these failing programs could be made successful, they…[READ MORE]

The current real estate market is the most heavily subsidized and manipulated in US History. More than 90% of loans used to buy real estate in the US carry direct government guarantees. The federal reserve embarked on an unprecedented policy of buying mortgage-backed securities to artificially lower mortgage interest rates on the government-backed loans. Add to that the manipulation of the market by the banking cartel which engineered a 60% reduction in available housing inventory, and it becomes obvious that we navigate a housing market which has little or no semblance to a free market. In Barack Obama's second term, he can guide policymakers in one of two directions. Either he seeks to reduce the government's manipulation of the housing…[READ MORE]

Renting Versus Owning Renting versus owning is both an intellectual decision and an emotional one. The intellectual decision is first and foremost a financial analysis of the comparative cost of renting versus owning. The cost of a rental can be determined fairly easily as there are usually a number of comparable properties on the market to establish a realistic rental rate for any given property. Of course, it is easy to justify in one's mind a comparative rent that is higher than the market will bear. A house someone is in love with will almost certainly rent above market in their minds. Also when looking at similar products the rental rates may not be realistic in the marketplace. It is…[READ MORE]

Everyone knew this was coming. The FHA needs a bailout. When the final tally of losses at the FHA come in, everyone will act surprised. Nobody paying careful attention to what the FHA is doing will be shocked. They are absorbing the losses the banks could not by insuring loans with low down payments in a declining market. No private lender or mortgage insurer would do this because the losses would put them out of business. Instead these losses will be absorbed by the US taxpayer — by you. FHA has been the lender of last resort since its inception. It was started in 1934 during the depths of the Great Depression to provide mortgage lending at a time when private…[READ MORE]

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