The Collected Works of Author and Blogger Larry Roberts

Archive for January, 2015

Several factors could weaken the market, but the forced repatriation of foreign investment has the potential to really flatten house prices. With mortgage interest rates dropping below 4%, and with an improving economy, the housing market starts 2015 with a small boost as compared to the dismal beginning of 2014. Hopefully, this year the pundits won't feed us bullshit about the weather. This year may show improvement in housing sales and prices over 2014 if the economy continues to create new jobs and if wages begin to rise. However, a number of factors could weaken housing in 2015 and turn the hopeful start into yet another disastrous year of steady disappointment and endless pundit excuses. What could derail the housing…[READ MORE]

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 18.5% discount. Today's discount is 22.9%. This market is 4.4% undervalued. Median home price is $290,800 with a rental parity value of $381,600. This market's discount is $90,800. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 6 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased from $165/SF to $165/SF. Resale prices have been rising for 1 month(s). Over the last 12 months, resale prices rose 8.7% indicating a longer term upward price trend. Median rental rates increased $0 last month from $1,697 to $1,698. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 5.6%. Rents have been rising for 7 month(s). Price momentum signals rising rents over the next three…[READ MORE]

Established fund with fully-rented properties is reopening for investment. A number of investors have asked to redeem their shares in my Las Vegas fund. Rather than sell properties, I am looking for replacement investors to take their place. Expected 8% to 10% yearly returns; 4%-5% cash, 4%-5% appreciation. 2014 returns were 11.5%, 2013 was similar. $10,000 minimum. Radiant Homes II Disclosure Document Radiant Homes II Questionnaire Radiant Homes II Subscription Agreement Contact Larry Roberts at [email protected] or 949-351-6913 for more details.[READ MORE]

The US needs to rethink it's policies toward home ownership and housing subsidies. Some are suggesting Obama's silence signals a radical change. Every presidential administration of the last 100 years has promoted home ownership. The ideal of homeownership has become so sacrosanct that we never abandon this ideal even when the policies it spawns turn out disastrous. Instead, we clean retool our policies, pretend they weren't a failure, and begin work on the next housing catastrophe. We have a long history of supporting home ownership. When the 1920 census revealed a small dip in ownership rates since 1910, from 45.9 percent to 45.6 percent of all households, Herbert Hoover, as secretary of commerce, initiated the first major Washington campaign to boost…[READ MORE]

Homebuilders believe the feel-good nonsense printed in trade journals and industry media outlets and often rely on this information to make bad decisions. "Freedom is the right to tell people what they do not want to hear." George Orwell As someone who worked in the homebuilding industry for over 20 years, I often drank housing kool-aid with my co-workers. Although I remained grounded enough to see the obvious housing bubble of the 00s, many of my co-workers refused to acknowledge it, sometimes with heated arguments. The homebuilding industry, like many others, has it's own trade journals and industry news aggregators that keep people informed on happenings that impact the everyone who makes a living from home construction. But rather than…[READ MORE]

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