The Collected Works of Author and Blogger Larry Roberts

Archive for April, 2015

realtors accept reality that boomerang buyers will not return in large numbers. Economic predictions follow a repeating pattern. At first economists pander to everyone's optimism bias and proffer predictions based on recent trends and dominated by wishful thinking. Later, when reality of data forces them to abandon their fantasies, economists downwardly revise their predictions, sometimes over and over again. Finally, once they've lowered their projections enough, the data finally matches their lowered expectations, and they claim prescience for their brilliant insights. When the boomerang buyer meme first appeared, projections of "experts" (usually local real estate agents or mortgage brokers) confirmed that 80% or more of former owners would buy again. "It's more than incremental business, that's for sure," adds Dan…[READ MORE]

Too--big-to-fail banks should be bashed continually until the weight of political discontent forces their breakup. The bailouts of the too-big-too-fail banks irritated me (and many others). I would have far preferred to see the architects of the financial catastrophe of 2008 lose their jobs, their wealth, their social status, and be demonized for their atrocious behavior. Instead, we bailed them out, allowed them to keep their ill-gotten gains, and put them back in charge of our financial system. It wasn’t right. “Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits…[READ MORE]

Monetary policy implemented by central banks around the world creates the conditions where investors inflate asset bubbles by chasing yield. We hold these truths to be self-evident Those are the first words of the US Constitution. Along with equality and inalienable rights, we could add another self-evident truth: the federal reserve causes asset bubbles. Can We Blame the Fed for Asset Bubbles? Apr 14, 2015 4:18 PM EDT, By Megan McArdle On Monday, my Bloomberg View colleague Mark Gilbert explored a fretful question: Are we in the midst of yet another asset bubble? Stanley Druckenmiller, who helped George Soros “break the Bank of England” in 1992, thinks we are. In a speech earlier this year, he said he's got the…[READ MORE]

If a home seller asks a price buyers are unwilling or unable to pay, is the house really for sale? One of my goals for the writing and analysis on this site is to provide readers a vision of the future of the housing market. Where are prices going? What will happen with sales? How do the variables affecting housing cause changes in prices or sales? I do this because I believe people should have accurate information to make sound decisions on what will likely be the largest single purchase of their lives, buying a home. Most of what I write is opposed to the feel-good, Pollyanna nonsense served up by the financial media, a biased group beholden to realtors…[READ MORE]

I invite you to an event Shevy Akason and I are hosting at 6:30 on Thursday, May 7, at JT Schmids at the District. We provide free appetizers and drinks for your entertainment. Shevy and I would like to meet with you. If you arrive early, we guarantee you one-on-one time to discuss the housing market or anything you want. We will be there before 6:00, and we will stay until closing. Starting at 6:30, I will make a brief presentation on the local housing market. Shevy will follow with stories about his recent client work and what he sees happening in the OC market. We've also invited a local lender and a trust attorney to discuss current loan qualification…[READ MORE]

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