The Collected Works of Author and Blogger Larry Roberts

Archive for April, 2015

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 18.5% discount. Today's discount is 25.1%. This market is 6.5% undervalued. Median home price is $292,300 with a rental parity value of $386,200. This market's discount is $93,900. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 12 month(s). Momentum suggests improving affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased from $164/SF to $166/SF. Resale prices have been rising for 1 month(s). Over the last 12 months, resale prices rose 4.7% indicating a longer term upward price trend. Median rental rates increased $0 last month from $1,691 to $1,691. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 5.6%. Rents have been rising for 10 month(s). Price momentum signals rising rents over the next three…[READ MORE]

The OC Housing News analyses every for sale property on the MLS for its potential as a cashflow investment based on advanced hedge fund algorithms. Between late 2010 and early 2012, I purchased 53 homes in Las Vegas -- sight unseen. I used a service that provided pictures of the properties, but since these were all auctions, sometimes the inside views were not available, so I had no idea what I would find if I won at auction. Does that sound scary or crazy? It was a manageable risk. Usually, whenever I bid on a property where I couldn't see the inside, I simply bid less to give myself an allowance in case I had to replace everything, and sometimes…[READ MORE]

Reverse mortgages sacrifice a financial future and result in many potentially negative outcomes. I’m not a big fan of debt, in case you didn’t notice. I don’t like consumer debt, and I really don’t like reverse mortgages. I wrote that Home ownership with no mortgage is the best retirement plan. It stands to reason that I view taking on mortgage debt in retirement as the worst retirement plan, yet many people turn to reverse mortgages as the primary financial planning tool for their golden years. Reverse mortgages sound like a good deal: The lender gives free money, and the borrower doesn’t have to sell their house. It shouldn't be surprising the loan is popular, particularly among spenders and Ponzis. Unfortunately,…[READ MORE]

Would you allow the federal reserve to ban currency so banks could charge you to store your savings? Money is both a medium of exchange and a store of wealth. Money represents the stored value of labor not immediately converted to consumption. Historically, people used scarce items like gold that were durable, difficult to replicate, easy to store, and easy to transport both to acquire goods and services and as a store of wealth when no goods and services were required. Gold served as money for millennia, mostly because nobody figured out how to transmute other elements into gold. However, once rulers started coining gold, they began to substitute other metals, shave the coins, and reduce the size of the…[READ MORE]

Lending industry and realtor lobbyists argue lending standards are too tight and should be loosened up. They are wrong on both counts. Real estate industry lobbyists appeal to lawmakers for policies the real estate industry believes will promote more transactions at higher prices. Most often this myopic lobbying causes unintended long-term detrimental impacts on the housing market. In 2004 every realtor wish was granted: lending standards were loosened to the point of complete abandonment, and restrictions on the amount prospective buyers could borrow were also removed through teaser rates, liar loans, and negative amortization. In the short term, realtors reaped the benefits as transaction volumes escalated even as prices rose higher and higher. Rather than being the culmination of all…[READ MORE]

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