The Collected Works of Author and Blogger Larry Roberts

Archive for November, 2015

A large majority wants to own a house, but only a small minority is actually saving money to meet that objective. The last line of defense for the housing bulls is the fallacy of pent-up demand. Belief in this fallacy relies on people’s inability to distinguish between desire and demand. The financial media frequently entreats us to stories about how home ownership is not dead because surveys proclaim 88% still desire to own a home. The desire for housing always exceeds the supply because there is always some segment of the market who is unable to obtain home ownership due to the cost of housing and a lack of available credit. True demand is the amount of money those with…[READ MORE]

Float Clubs LLC, a California LLC in good standing, filed a DBA and obtained a business license for a new center for REST, restricted environmental stimulation therapy, named Float Carlsbad, at 880 Carlsbad Village Drive, Suite 102 Carlsbad, Calif., December 21, 2016 – Carlsbad is about to get its first float center. Float Clubs LLC filed a DBA with the County of San Diego and obtained a business license in the city of Carlsbad to operate Float Carlsbad. The owner, Larry Roberts, also reported he applied for a tenant improvement building permit on December 19, 2015. “We’re very excited about this new venture,” said Larry Roberts, owner of Float Carlsbad. “We filed for our building permit, and we expect to…[READ MORE]

Historically, properties in this market sell at a 25.7% discount. Today's discount is 33.4%. This market is 7.8% undervalued. Median home price is $280,400 with a rental parity value of $421,600. This market's discount is $141,200. Monthly payment affordability has been improving over the last 1 month(s). Momentum suggests unchanging affordability. Resale prices on a $/SF basis increased from $183/SF to $184/SF. Resale prices have been rising for 8 month(s). Over the last 12 months, resale prices rose 7.3% indicating a longer term upward price trend. Median rental rates increased $1 last month from $1,860 to $1,862. The current capitalization rate (rent/price) is 6.4%. Rents have been rising for 12 month(s). Price momentum signals rising rents over the next three…[READ MORE]

As predicted three years ago, now that house prices are near the peak, for-sale inventory is returning to the market. Back in late 2012, I noted that Below-median home inventories may not recover for years. Here was my reasoning: For home inventories to recover, sellers must come back to the market. Since so many loanowners are underwater, particularly at lower price points, very few organic sales occur on below-median properties. Further, since below-median loanowners have a strong incentive to squat until foreclosure, few of these properties are coming to market as short sales. That leaves us with a depleted market that is only be replenished by foreclosures. Banks are in no hurry to process foreclosures and bring these properties to…[READ MORE]

he fear of homelessness is the essential motivation to get people to work to produce goods and services in our society. Modern American culture can trace its roots on the North American continent to pioneering English settlers. Life on the frontier is harsh, and each family unit is self-reliant. In a frontier society, if people didn’t work, and if they didn’t produce their own food and shelter, then they died. Fear of death from starvation or exposure was very real, and anyone who wasn’t motivated to produce something of value to themselves or others faced the near certainty of painful death. In a frontier society, there are no bailouts. We have made much progress over the last four centuries, and…[READ MORE]

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